You’ve probably been seeing a lot of stories that distill the Democratic presidential race down to this: because there are so few policy differences between the candidates, the relevant question is whether you looking for an effective manager (where Clinton would like to be perceived as stronger) or an inspirational leader (where Obama looks stronger). Never mind the actual accuracy of this alignment… we all know that is irrelevant.
But really, does any of this matter? At the end of the day, people tend to vote by identity politics and by intangibles, while policy positions or even managerial style be damned.
There’s no doubt a large percentage of people support candidates they identify with. Thus, the depressing reality is that a significant portion of women who support Clinton do so primarily because she is female, and significant portion of blacks who support Obama do so primarily because they share his race. (As an aside, this clearly applies in all directions; a lot of old white men will vote for an old white guy primarily because he’s NOT black or female, especially in a general election against Clinton or Obama.)
For those whose support is not already locked in by identity, another significant chunk of voters make their decisions based on meaningless soft intangibles; appearance, tone of voice, mannerisms. I suspect Ms. Clinton is at a serious disadvantage within this group, and this group alone may prove her undoing.
However, over-emphasizing these “identity and intangibles” drivers is also a risk. The unfortunate result of the above is that the media absorbs and assumes these factors as not just a tendency, but a total reality. The soft underbelly of this blanket assumption has been exposed in the media handling of black women voters, who are ALL portrayed as being helplessly torn between supporting one or the other of their political identities for its own sake (“are you black first or a woman first?”). These stories often are presented with nary a whiff of expectation that ANY African-American women might actually be concerned with whatever policy or governance style differences may be found to exist between the Democratic candidates.
It’s a disgrace that there are indeed way too many voters who think no further than their own race, gender, and irrelevant superficialities; but perhaps a bigger disgrace is that all voters (especially black women voters) are being painted by the media with the same brush.
